Predicting the success of KM

In my research I have been aiming to validate the link between efforts by the knowledge management function and profit. The good news - for us legal KM people - is, the link exists.
Using regression and correlation, productivity can be predicted by 26,8%.
The bad news however is that the key predictor is again not a straightforward number that can be monitored on a daily basis and easily influenced. In the case study it is yet another - difficult to monitor - intangible: The value perception of KM among fee earners. This predictor is survey-based and therefore prone to errors.
Drilling further down however brings some predictors to light that can be traced in a sensible way. This is also where the benefit of the masurement exercise comes in. When people start to understand relationships they will start to understand how to turn KM into an obvious success factor.
If measuring the contribution of KM to the business becomes normal practice, we can finally move away from anecdotal evidence only and move towards facts.
How about this for a change: KM is investment, not overhead cost of doing business. And the return on investment is what we are after. If we know what the the key predictors are for improving that return on investment, if we achieve transparency, then we can manage it better and achieve much more than now.
More on this - and more clarity on what the predictors mean - when I am ready to publish my thesis...
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